As hardware progress goes on, those big insights can be applied over more existing hardware to produce bigger impacts. Plus a large amount of uncertainty in how people will actually react to the work I have in my head if I can actually write it.
And then make absolutely no effort to conceal this latent fact, except that you never literally say it out loud. Plus a large amount of uncertainty in how people will actually react to the work I have in my head if I can actually write it.
Mesh analysis solved problems.
I learned programming on my own, but it is a subject where a very rude machine tells you you're wrong, a lot. You can ask people to think of key factors themselves and still manipulate them really easily into giving answers that imply a low final answer, because so long as people go on listing things and assigning them probabilities, the product is bound to keep getting lower.
RationalWiki's editors are just vandals that are too scared of Trent Toulouse writing do any vandalism. It helps precisely because we can avoiding wasting our effort on projects which are unlikely to succeed.
This advice may contain significant but not story-breaking spoilers for Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality. By using my domain knowledge? Yes, there are areas that need much more research but it is unlikely given the research to date that we will eventually discover that IQ tests were not a reliable measure of what has been defined as intelligence.Writing characters with an inner spark of life and optimization: not characters that do super-amazing clever things, but characters that are trying in routine ways to optimize their own life in a reasonably self-aware fashion. Which you think eventually ends up important to saving the world. You violated Conservation of Energy! But your claim to have incommunicable advance knowledge that your lottery ticket will do better than this by a factor of seems very suspicious to me. You might learn something from the experience. He asserts that friendliness a desire not to harm humans should be designed in from the start, but that the designers should recognize both that their own designs may be flawed, and that the robot will learn and evolve over time. Org or on other, more specialized sites. I could get far enough into Methods to acquire an audience, suddenly lose my writing speed, and Methods could still end up ultimately having a large impact.
Eliezer: Think of an enormous space of possibilities, a giant multidimensional sphere. Similarly, liquid stock prices sometimes make big moves.Two cheats for writing intelligent characters, then, are first to actually imagine yourself in their place, and second to start with a character template based on some real or fictional person who you respect. I would expect people to react mainly to the part about the IMO gold medalist, even though the base rate for being an IMO gold medalist is higher than the base rate for authoring the most-reviewed Harry Potter fanfiction. The argument against your success in Harry Potter fanfiction seems to me about as strong as any argument the outside-view perspective might make. Someone like that might suspect that I'm not a purely random lottery ticket winner, but they won't have as much evidence to that effect as you. Which will cause some of your readers to absorb the experience of being rational. Book I ignites the spark that is rationality and serves as a good introduction, but personally, I think Book II is the most important one. Maybe some of the chapters are not that essential in the grand scheme of things. Avoid " Someone is wrong in a journal! The text is personal - reading it is almost intimate at times. Avoid anything that lets the reader think, "I could have written that sentence. This may require thinking past the first thought that pops into your head. Give the answer near the end.